By The Dog
By The Dog
Saturday, October 30, 2004
Friday, October 29, 2004
Thursday, October 28, 2004
this from http://www.presidentelect.org/blog/
In a nutshell (check out the article for the details), if the House size had continued to grow with the population there would have been about 830 Representatives in 2000. Since the number of Electoral College votes = # of Senators + # Representatives + DC, that would mean there would have been 934 electoral votes up for grabs in 2000.
Allocating these votes to the states using the same formula used now, and assuming the candidates won the same states they actually won in 2000, we discover that Al Gore would have won the presidency 471-463!
They went through all possible elections with the House ranging in size from 50 members to 1000 members and their results were a bit surprising. For all House sizes less than 491 members - Bush wins. For all House sizes bigger than than 597 members (except for 655) - Gore wins. Between 491 and 655 the election would tie 25 times! Between 492 and 596 the winner swiches back and forth in a seemingly random fashion.
The point of this exercise? Learning that the arbitrary setting of the House at 435 back in 1941 may have been the deciding factor in electing the president in 2000!
i haven't checked the math but none-the-less it's interesting.
In a nutshell (check out the article for the details), if the House size had continued to grow with the population there would have been about 830 Representatives in 2000. Since the number of Electoral College votes = # of Senators + # Representatives + DC, that would mean there would have been 934 electoral votes up for grabs in 2000.
Allocating these votes to the states using the same formula used now, and assuming the candidates won the same states they actually won in 2000, we discover that Al Gore would have won the presidency 471-463!
They went through all possible elections with the House ranging in size from 50 members to 1000 members and their results were a bit surprising. For all House sizes less than 491 members - Bush wins. For all House sizes bigger than than 597 members (except for 655) - Gore wins. Between 491 and 655 the election would tie 25 times! Between 492 and 596 the winner swiches back and forth in a seemingly random fashion.
The point of this exercise? Learning that the arbitrary setting of the House at 435 back in 1941 may have been the deciding factor in electing the president in 2000!
i haven't checked the math but none-the-less it's interesting.
Monday, October 25, 2004
Sunday, October 24, 2004
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